A Summary of the HSE Demographics Study
One of the items on the Oct 12th board meeting agenda was a presentation by Dr. Jerome McKibben about our school district’s demographics. This data specifically highlighted how the overall community demographics will impact short-term and long-term school enrollment, and will aid the district in forecasting and planning staffing needs, capital projects, and possible redistricting. Dr. McKibben’s projections rely on various assumptions, some of which include the student transfer rate into and out of the district remaining at 2011-12 to 2014-15 levels, and lenders not returning to approving sub-prime mortgages.
To summarize his presentation to the board, Dr. McKibben forecasts that total enrollment will reach its peak in the 2020-2021 school year, with a total of 21,375 students enrolled. Looking ahead to the 2026-2027 school year, he projected enrollment to decrease to 20,733, which was less than the number of students enrolled for the 2015-2016 school year. In addition to the overall district numbers, his projections also include enrollment numbers by grade level as well as by school. Based on his analysis, the district will be equipped to make informed decisions about whether the best way forward is to expand existing schools, build new schools, implement further redistricting, or continue to utilize mobile classrooms.
Dr. McKibben’s full report can be found here: http://www.boarddocs.com/in/hses/Board.nsf/files/AENNK25EB257/$file/HSE%20Combined%20Report%20161004.pdf